主 题：Does Trade Liberalization Induce Occupation Movement? A Task-based Analysis Using Indonesia Data
Does task trading induce workers to change jobs in a developing country? To answer this question, we propose a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous workers self selecting into different tasks according to their skill-specific comparative advantage,individual task-specific abilities, and task prices. We define tasks at the occupation level and classify occupations into three groups: cognitive, routine, and manual. Tasks embedded in goods to foreign countries act as demand shocks that influence the occupational choices of workers through changing task prices. The model predicts that a positive shock of foreign demand for a task generates a movement of workers into that task. Using Indonesian data, we estimate this effect by exploiting the regional variations in the exposure to trade and occupational employment. The main finding is that during the pre-opening period (1990-1996), trade had no significant effect on workers’occupational choices. However, in the post-opening period (2002-2006), growing demafrom foreign countries induced workers to move to routine jobs, which were shrinking in many developed economies in the same period. We further investigate the impact of trading with China. We find that China alone accounts for about 10 percent of Indonesia’s trade-induced occupational employment changes for manual jobs and half of the increase in cognitive jobs, but it h as little impact on the workers in routine occupations.